We’ve been hearing for the past few years such bad news; record unemployment, housing prices falling, the number of foreclosures in some markets increasing and the ever-present political bickering that the media informs us of on a constant basis. The message is we are divided and things are going to get worse before they get better.
But are they?
I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for some good news. I was reading this past Sunday’s New York Times and on the front page of the business section was an article that caught my eye entitled, “He Saw Trouble Coming. Now He Sees It Going.” I liked the sound of that.
The article made note of the fact that October was a pretty good month in terms of employment and even better, the stock market was back on track — pre-2008. In one of my past blogs, I wrote about how our October was a great one as well, starting off the month with a lucrative sale of a Manhattan luxury condo in Central Park West.
In another earlier blog, I predicted that the low-interest rates would spark a whole new trend of buying and that the economy was slowly but surely getting back on track. It’s nice to know that there’s an economic expert who agrees with that.
Ian Shepherdson, the Chief U.S. Economist and author of Notes on the United States, a publication read by investors, policymakers and dealers in more than 25 countries, is starting to see a shift in the economy; “the beginnings of a turn in the economy that could translate to a rise in gross domestic product growth and an improving employment picture in the second half of 2011.”
Here’s what else he sees evolving:
•Lending institutions loosening their hold on credit and small businesses will once again be able to get much-needed loans – the credit crunch is coming to an end.
•When this credit expansion does occur, an annualized growth between 3 percent and 4 percent will occur in 2011.
•A “pent-up” demand will be released among smaller companies for equipment and other goods.
•Over the next year, we’ll emerge from the sluggish economy to a “real properly growing recovery” and the second half of 2011 will be a “true turning point for unemployment. . .”
Shepherdson predicted the housing bubble burst in the fall of 2005. He’s a past winner of the Wall Street Journal’s annual economic forecasting competition. He worked for HSBC Securities in New York before he joined High Frequency Economics. He has a Ph.D. in Economics. He’s been right in the past and I’m trusting he knows what he’s talking about for the future.
What great news to receive at the end of a year where all of us have felt the credit crunch as well as the trials and tribulations our economy has endured. Our future is very bright indeed, once again. More jobs, more credit and a better, thriving economy humming along — that means more people searching for their perfect New York home, whether it be a condo, co-op or townhouse.
Here’s to some good news and here’s to 2011; a year that will be filled with resolution, hope, optimism and light at the end of what has been a very long tunnel.
Share some good news with us. What do you think of Shepherdson’s predictions? Do you see the coming year as a turning point in our economy? Leave a comment and let me know.
Sources:
Morgenson, Gretchen. “He Saw Trouble Coming. Now He Sees It Going.” The New York Times. 7 Nov. 2010. pp. Bu 1, 8.
High Frequency Economics. (11 Nov 2010).
